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MINISTRY EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HO CHI MINH UNIVERSITY OF BANKING NGUYEN BICH NGUYEN THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN ASIA – PACIFIC MEMBER COUNTRIES MASTER THESIS Major: Finance - Banking Code: 8 34 02 01 Ho Chi Minh City, 2026
MINISTRY EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HO CHI MINH UNIVERSITY OF BANKING NGUYEN BICH NGUYEN THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN ASIA – PACIFIC MEMBER COUNTRIES MASTER THESIS Major: Finance - Banking Code: 8 34 02 01 SUPER ADVISER: DR. NGUYEN THI NHU QUYNH Ho Chi Minh City, 2026
i DECLARATION OF AUTHENTICITY As the author of this thesis, I declare that the following are: My full name is Nguyen Bich Nguyen Student of class CH25B2, Faculty of Finance and Banking in Ho Chi Minh University of Banking. I declare that the study with the tittle “The impact of economic growth on carbon emissions in Asia – Pacific member countries” is completely made by myself based on inquiry and the guidance of my lecturer Dr. Nguyen Thi Nhu Quynh. In addition, none of this research has been published before submission. All the research data in the tables are used for the analysis, evaluation and comment are collected from different sources indicated in the references section. If any fraud is discovered, I will take full responsibility for the content of my thesis.
ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would love to express my strong gratitude to all lecturers at Ho Chi Minh University of Banking for teaching, imparting valuable knowledge and experiences to me during my studying process. It was such a fundamental foudation and valuable luggage for me to enter the practice working environment in the future. In addition, I also would love to give special thank to my supervisor Dr. Nguyen Thi Nhu Quynh, has devoted herself to teaching and giving comments to help me to complete my master thesis well. Finally, I wish for all lecturers at Ho Chi Minh University always have lots of good health and success in their occupations. Since my lack of knowledge and practical experience, my thesis contains shortcomings. Therefore, I sincerely hope to receive guidance and feedback from the lecturers so that my study can be improved further. Sincerely!
iii ABSTRACT: This research empirically examines the the impact of economic growth on carbon emissions in Asia – Pacific member countries in the period from 2001 to 2023. The data were collected from World Bank. The dependent variable used to measure emissions is CO2. The impact on carbon emissions is measured by a bunch of independent variables including Economic growth (GDP); Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Renewable Energy Consumption (EC); Population (POP) and Financial Development (FD). The author also uses some research method namely Pooled OLS Model, Fixed Effects Model (FEM) Model and Random Effects Model (REM) Model which are based on the unbalanced panel data of 21 APEC member countries from 2001 to 2023. For the next step, the most suitable model will be choosen by the Hausmen Test and for this study it was the FEM model. Generally, the finding from the analysis revealed that EC and FDI were negative impact on carbon emissions in the Asis – Pacific region which demonstrates that the use of renewable energy and foreign direct investment have positive impact on environment quality. Further results revealed that GDP, POP and FD are positively and significantly related to the carbon emissions. This result proves that development activities increase carbon emissions and detrimental to environmental quality. Based on the research results of study, the author proposes several policy implications that aimed to contributie to the reduction of carbon emissions. Keywords: economic development, economic growth, carbon emissions, Asia – Pacific, The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)
iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS Acronym Meaning APEC The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CO2 Carbon dioxide emissions EC Renewable energy consumption EKC The Kuznets Curve FD Financial Development FDI Foreign direct investment GDP Econimic growth IEA International Energy Agency POP Population WB World Bank WHO World Health Organization
v CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................1 1.1. REASONS FOR CHOOSING THE STUDY .................................................................... 1 1.2. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES .............................................................................................. 3 1.2.1. General objectives...................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2. Specific objectives ..................................................................................................... 3 1.3. RESEARCH QUESTIONS................................................................................................ 3 1.4. THE RESEARCH SUBJECT AND SCOPE OF STUDY ................................................. 4 1.5. RESEARCH METHOD AND DATA ................................................................................ 5 1.6. CONTRIBUTION.............................................................................................................. 6 1.7. RESEARCH STRUCTURE............................................................................................... 6 CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 1...............................................................................8 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK & LITERATURE REVIEW .........9 2.1. OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC GROWTH............................................................................. 9 2.1.1. Definition ......................................................................................................................... 9 2.1.2. Economic growth measurement indicators .................................................................... 10 2.1.3. The impact of economic growth ..................................................................................... 10 2.2. OVERVIEW OF CARBON EMISSIONS ............................................................................ 12 2.2.1. Definition ....................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.2. Carbon emissions measurement indicators .................................................................... 13 2.2.3. The impact of carbon emissions..................................................................................... 14 2.3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................ 16 2.4. EMPIRICAL REVIEW......................................................................................................... 21 2.5. RESEARCH GAPS............................................................................................................... 27 CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 2.............................................................................29 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ......................................................30 3.1. RESEARCH PROCESS ....................................................................................................... 30 3.2. RESEARCH MODEL........................................................................................................... 32 3.2.1. General research model.................................................................................................. 32 3.2.2. Exlpanation of variables................................................................................................. 32 3.2.3. The hypotheses regarding the impact of economic growth on carbon emissions .......... 38 3.3. RESEARCH METHOD........................................................................................................ 39 3.4. RESEARCH DATA .............................................................................................................. 42 CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 3.............................................................................43
vi CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH RESULTS.....................................................................44 4.1. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS.......................................................................................... 44 4.2. CORRELATION MATRIX.............................................................................................. 46 4.3. REGRESSION ESTIMATION RESULTS ...................................................................... 48 4.4. MODEL SELECTION TEST .......................................................................................... 49 4.4.1. Testing between Pooled OLS and FEM ................................................................... 49 4.4.2. Testing between Pooled OLS and REM................................................................... 50 4.4.3. Testing between REM and FEM .............................................................................. 50 4.5. HETEROSKEDASTICITY AND AUTOCORRELATION TESTS ................................ 51 4.6. IM PESARAN SHIN AND PEDRONI TESTS ............................................................... 52 4.7. REGRESSION RESULTS WITH FGLS ......................................................................... 54 4.8. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS .......................................................................................... 58 CONCLUSIONS OF CHAPTER 4 ..........................................................................60 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION..................................................................................61 5.1. CONCLUSION..................................................................................................................... 61 5.2. RECOMMENDATIONS....................................................................................................... 61 5.3. LIMITATIONS OF THE THESIS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTIONS ................ 65 CONCLUSION .........................................................................................................67 REFERENCES............................................................................................................ i APPENDIX 1.1: LIST OF 21 APEC COUNTRIES MEMBER ................................v APPENDIX 1.2: LIST OF 14 APEC COUNTRIES MEMBER .............................. vi APPENDIX 2: RESEARCH DATE......................................................................... vii APPENDIX 3: RESEARCH RESULTS ................................................................ xvii
vii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Summary of previous research ...........................................................24 Table 3.1: Variables and expected signs of research model ................................36 Table 4.1: Descriptive statistics ...........................................................................44 Table 4.2: Correlation matrix...............................................................................47 Table 4.3: Variance Inflation Factor ....................................................................47 Table 4.4: Sumary of OLS, FEM, REM regression results .................................48 Table 4.5: The F – test results ..............................................................................49 Table 4.6: Testing for REM and Pooled OLS......................................................50 Table 4.7: Hausman test.......................................................................................50 Table 4.8: Heteroskedasticity test ........................................................................51 Table 4.9: Wooldridge test...................................................................................52 Table 4.10: IPS test CO2......................................................................................52 Table 4.11: IPS test CO2 I(1)...............................................................................53 Table 4.12: IPS test GDP .....................................................................................53 Table 4.13: IPS test GDP I(1) ..............................................................................53 Table 4.14: Pedroni test........................................................................................54 Table 4.15: FGLS test ..........................................................................................55 Table 4.16: The research hypotheses and the Regression results ........................59
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