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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HOCHIMINH UNIVERSITY OF BANKING NGUYEN XUAN DUNG ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH – EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM DOCTORAL DISSERTATION OF FINANCE AND BANKING HO CHI MINH CITY - 2023 1-- 1 -
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HOCHIMINH UNIVERSITY OF BANKING NGUYEN XUAN DUNG ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH - EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM DOCTORAL DISSERTATION OF FINANCE AND BANKING Major: Finance - Banking CODE: 9.34.02.01 PhD. Supervisor : Assoc. Prof., Dr.Nguyen Duc Trung HO CHI MINH CITY - 2023 1-- 2 -
DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY I am Nguyen Xuan Dung, PhD student of Course 23, Academic Year 2019 - 2022, hereby declare that the research work is entirely my own original work under the guidance and supervision of Assoc. Prof., Dr.Nguyen Duc Trung. I affirm that this work has not been previously submitted to any other institution or organization for any academic or professional qualification. I acknowledge and properly cite all the sources used in this work, ensuring that all information, data, and materials are accurate, reliable, and appropriately referenced. I take full responsibility for the authenticity, originality, and integrity of the content presented in this work. Ho Chi Minh City, day month year Author i
ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my deepest gratitude to the individuals and institutions who have played a crucial role in the completion of this doctoral thesis. First and foremost, my sincere appreciation goes to my esteemed supervisor, Assoc. Prof., Dr.Nguyen Duc Trung, for his unwavering guidance, exceptional mentorship, and valuable insights throughout this research journey. His expertise and dedication have been invaluable in shaping the trajectory and quality of this study. I am immensely grateful to the members of my doctoral committee for their invaluable feedback, constructive criticism, and rigorous evaluation. Their scholarly contributions have significantly enhanced the intellectual rigor and academic merit of this thesis. I would like to extend my heartfelt thanks to the faculty and staff of Postgraduate Education of Ho Chi Minh University of Banking for providing a conducive academic environment, access to resources, and opportunities for intellectual growth. Their support has been instrumental in the successful completion of this research. Lastly, I wish to acknowledge the contributions of the countless researchers, scholars, and authors whose works have paved the way for this study. Their groundbreaking research and seminal publications have provided the foundation upon which this thesis is built. Ho Chi Minh City, day month year Author ii
SUMMARY OF THESIS The thesis explores the relationship between fiscal policy, public debt, and economic growth in the context of Vietnam. It delves into the different approaches to fiscal policy adopted by developed and developing nations, highlighting countercyclical policies in developed countries and procyclical policies in developing nations. The primary aim of the study is to assess the impact of public debt on economic growth in Vietnam, analyzing the determinants of fiscal policy and their influence on economic outcomes. Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2021, the researchers employ regression models to examine the effects of fiscal policy decisions on Vietnam's economic performance. The study's significance lies in its application of theoretical foundations to the specific context of Vietnam, providing empirical evidence to inform policy development related to public debt management. The study yields several noteworthy results. First, it confirms the prevailing pattern of procyclical fiscal policy in Vietnam, with increased government spending during economic upswings and reduced spending during downturns. This cyclicality can pose challenges to sustainable economic growth, as fiscal policy is not effectively counteracting economic fluctuations. Second, the analysis reveals a non-linear relationship between public debt and economic growth in Vietnam. While a moderate level of debt can be conducive to economic expansion, excessively high levels of debt can hamper growth and stability. Therefore, it is crucial to identify the threshold at which increasing debt levels become detrimental to economic performance. Third, the study uncovers specific determinants of fiscal policy that significantly influence economic outcomes in Vietnam. These determinants include government revenue, expenditure, and borrowing. The findings suggest that policymakers should focus on optimizing these factors to achieve sustainable economic growth and prudent debt management. Building on these results, the content proposes new avenues for research. One potential area of investigation is the exploration of alternative fiscal policy frameworks that could better align with Vietnam's economic context. For example, iii
the study suggests examining the feasibility and effectiveness of adopting a more countercyclical fiscal policy approach in Vietnam to mitigate the negative impacts of economic fluctuations and promote stability. Furthermore, the content emphasizes the importance of assessing the quality and composition of public expenditure. It suggests investigating the allocation of government spending in sectors such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare, to ensure that public resources are utilized efficiently and effectively. Such research could shed light on the areas where targeted investments can yield the greatest economic returns and long-term development benefits. In terms of policy recommendations, the study highlights the need for prudent debt management in Vietnam. It emphasizes the importance of implementing fiscal reforms that aim to maintain a sustainable debt- to-GDP ratio. This can be achieved through measures such as enhancing revenue collection, improving expenditure efficiency, and exploring innovative financing mechanisms. Additionally, the study underscores the significance of strengthening fiscal institutions and governance frameworks. Transparent and accountable public financial management systems can help minimize the risks associated with public debt accumulation, ensure effective utilization of resources, and enhance investor confidence in Vietnam's economy. The study also suggests the establishment of a comprehensive debt monitoring mechanism to regularly assess and manage public debt levels. This mechanism should consider both quantitative and qualitative factors, taking into account the potential risks and implications of debt accumulation on economic stability and growth. In conclusion, the thesis provides detailed insights into the relationship between fiscal policy, public debt, and economic growth in Vietnam. It highlights the importance of adopting appropriate fiscal policy frameworks, managing public debt prudently, and optimizing government expenditure to achieve sustainable economic development. The study's results, along with the proposed areas for further research and policy recommendations, offer valuable guidance for policymakers in Vietnam as they navigate the complex dynamics of fiscal policy and debt management. iv
TABLE OF CONTENT CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION OF THE RESEARCH.............................................1 1.1 THE RATIONALE OF RESEARCH........................................................................1 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES......................................................................................6 1.3 OBJECTS, SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY OF THE RESEARCH ......................7 1.4 THE SIGNIFICANE AND CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE RESEARCH...................8 1.5 RESEARCH CONTENTS.........................................................................................9 CHAPTER 2: THEORIES AND LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................11 2.1 THEORIES OF FISCAL POLICY AND BUSINESS CYCLE...............................11 2.1.1 Concepts relevant to the research problems....................................................11 2.1.2 Theories of Fiscal Policy and Business Cycle..................................................13 2.2 THEORETICAL OF PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ...................16 2.2.1 Theories of Public debt.....................................................................................16 2.2.2 Classical theories of public debt and economic growth ..................................17 2.2.3 Neoclassical theories of public debt and economic growth.............................21 2.2.4 Modern monetary policy on the relationship between public debt and economic growth .......................................................................................................24 2.2.5 Theories of the linear impact of public debt on economic growth...................26 2.2.6 Theories of nonlinear effects of public debt on economic growth ...................29 2.3 RELEVANT EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE ......................................................30 2.3.1 Literature review of procyclical fiscal policy...................................................30 2.3.2 Literature review of the countercyclical fiscal policy......................................39 2.3.3 Literature review of representative variables for the economic cycle and fiscal policy................................................................................................................41 2.4 LITERATURE REVIEW BETWEEN PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH......................................................................................................................43 2.4.1 Literature review of the negative impact of public debt on economic growth........................................................................................................................43 v
2.4.2 Literature review of the positive impact of public debt on economic growth........................................................................................................................48 2.4.3 Literature review of the neutral effect of public debt on economic growth.....51 2.4.4 Literature review of nonlinear effects of public debt on economic growth .....52 2.5 THE BASIS OF DESIGNING EMPIRICAL RESEARCH MODEL......................65 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY..........................................................71 3.1 RESEARCH MODEL .............................................................................................71 3.1.1 VECM model ....................................................................................................71 3.1.2 NARDL model...................................................................................................75 3.2 VARIABLES DESCRIPTIONS OF THE RESEARCH MODEL ..........................79 3.2.1 The variables of the model of the relationship between fiscal policy and the business cycle ......................................................................................................79 3.2.2 The variables of the model of public debt on economic growth.......................80 3.3 RESEARCH DATA.................................................................................................80 3.3.1 Research data of the model of the relationship between fiscal policy and the business cycle ......................................................................................................80 3.3.2 Research data of the model of public debt on economic growth .....................82 CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .....................................84 4.1 EXAMINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE..............................................................................................84 4.1.1 Tests of the research model..............................................................................84 4.1.2 Results of testing the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth........................................................................................................................88 4.2 EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH......................................................................................................................92 4.2.1 Tests of the research model..............................................................................92 4.2.2 Research results................................................................................................98 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS ...........................107 5.1 CONCLUSION......................................................................................................107 5.2 POLICY IMPLICATIONS....................................................................................109 vi
5.3 LIMITATIONS OF THE RESEARCH .................................................................113 SUMMARY....................................................................................................................114 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................115 APPENDIX EXAMINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE...................................................................135 APPENDIX 1: STATIONARY TEST OF DATA SERIES.........................................135 APPENDIX 2: COINTERGRATION TEST...............................................................143 APPENDIX 3: CAUSALITY TEST............................................................................144 APPENDIX 4: LAG ORDER SELECTION CRITERIA............................................145 APPENDIX 5: THE STABILITY TEST OF THE MODEL .......................................146 APPENDIX 6: THE VECM ........................................................................................148 APPENDIX 7: IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION..................................................149 APPENDIX 8:VARIANCE DECOMPOSTION.........................................................150 APPENDIX EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH ..............................................................................................151 APPENDIX 1: UNIT ROOT TEST.............................................................................151 APPENDIX 2: DATA DESCRIPTION.......................................................................161 APPENDIX 3: THE ECR TEST..................................................................................162 APPENDIX 4: THE NARDL MODEL.......................................................................163 APPENDIX 5: THE BREUSCH TEST.......................................................................164 APPENDIX 6: THE LONG RUN AND BOUNDS TEST ..........................................165 APPENDIX 7: THE RAMSEY TEST.........................................................................166 APPENDIX 8: THE WALD TEST..............................................................................167 APPENDIX 9: PLOT OF CUMULATIVE SUM OF RESIDUALS CUSUM............168 APPENDIX 10: PLOT OF THE CUMULATIVE SUM OF SQUARES OF RECURSIVE RESIDUALS (CUSUMSQ).................................................................169 APPENDIX 11: PLOT OF ASYMMETRIC CUMULATIVE DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER .............................................................................................................170 vii
LIST OF GRAPHS AND FIGURES FIGURE 2.1. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ...................................................................................................22 FUGURE 4.1. STABILITY TEST OF THE MODEL......................................................88 FIGURE 4.2. THE IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION OF EXP, TAX, LIA, GDP.....90 FIGURE 4.3. PLOT OF CUMULATIVE SUM (CUSUM) RESIDUALS ...................100 FIGURE 4.4. PLOT OF ADJUSTED CUMULATIVE SUM (CUSUMSQ) RESIDUALS...................................................................................................................101 FIGURE 4.5. ASYMMETRIC CUMULATIVE DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER GRAPH OF PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH........................................102 FIGURE 4.6. ASYMMETRIC CUMULATIVE DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER OF USDVND EXCHANGE RATE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH ......................................103 viii
LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2.1. SUMMARY OF EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES ON THE ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH................63 TABLE 3.1. SOURCES OF VARIABLES USED IN THE MODEL..............................79 TABLE 3.2. DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL VARIABLES.......................................80 TABLE 3.3. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF THE VARIABLES..............................80 TABLE 3.4. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF VARIABLES........................................82 TABLE 4.1. UNIT ROOT TEST OF DATA SERIES (D=0)...........................................84 TABLE 4.2. UNIT ROOT TEST OF DATA SERIES (D=2)...........................................85 TABLE 4.3. COINTEGRATION TEST OF DATA SERIES ..........................................85 TABLE 4.4. CAUSALITY TEST.....................................................................................86 TABLE 4.5. THE VECM..................................................................................................89 TABLE 4.6. VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION................................................................91 TABLE 4.7. UNIT ROOT TEST OF DATA SERIES (D=0)...........................................93 TABLE 4.8. UNIT ROOT TEST OF DATA SERIES (D=1)...........................................93 TABLE 4.9. THE RAMSEY TEST ..................................................................................94 TABLE 4.10. THE BREUSCH/PAGAN TEST ..............................................................95 TABLE 4.11. THE NARDL MODE................................................................................96 TABLE 4.12. NONLINEAR CO-INTEGRATION TEST ...............................................97 TABLE 4.13. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN ASYMMETRY TESTING .................97 TABLE 4.14. WALD TEST IN THE SHORT RUN AND THE LONG RUN................98 TABLE 4.15. ASYMMETRICAL IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE LONG-RUN......................................................................................99 ix
LIST OF ACRONYMS ACRONYMS EXPANSION NARDL Non-linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag GDP Gross Domestic Product GSO VN General Statistics Office of Vietnam IMF International Monetary Fund USD, VND... International symbols of currencies WB World Bank WTO World Trade Organization x
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION OF THE RESEARCH 1.1 THE RATIONALE OF RESEARCH A number of economies continue to experience below-average growth several years after the global financial crisis. Medium-term growth projections have been revised downward since 2011, which indicates the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for medium-term economic growth. Simultaneously, the ratio of public debt to GDP has skyrocketed in numerous developing market economies, reaching historic highs in a number of nations. In this context, the question is how fiscal policy interacts with the economic growth cycle. Fiscal policy (government spending, taxes, subsidies, etc.) and monetary policy (money supply, interest rates, exchange rates, etc.) are utilized by the government to intervene in the economy during periods of recession or rapid growth. Those policies are separated into pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical stages based on the recession or economic growth cycle. A pro-cyclical fiscal policy is defined as the policy aims to balance the government budget. For instance, if there is a budget deficit, it is necessary to increase tax revenues and decrease government spending. A fiscal strategy with the purpose of restoring output to its potential level is countercyclical. To attain potential output levels during a recession, the government continues to increase government spending and cut tax receipts (Keynes, 1936). Governments in developed nations frequently employ a countercyclical fiscal policy. This can be explained by an expansionary fiscal policy during economic contraction and a contractionary fiscal policy during economic expansion. The automated stabilizing instruments are used by developed countries to achieve the countercyclical fiscal policy. When unemployment is high, unemployment insurance and social transfer payments are increased. As declining personal income reduces government tax collection, tax policy can potentially reverse the cycle. While the economy exhibits signals of contraction, expansionary fiscal policy is enacted (Acemoglu et al., 2013; Fatas and Mihov, 2013). 1
While macroeconomic policy in developed nations is primarily targeted at stabilizing the economic cycle, countercyclical fiscal policy is implemented to accumulate in the expansion period. In developing nations, the macroeconomic policy is procyclical. Those economies frequently increase investment and public spending throughout the recovery phase of the economy to catch up with developing nations. The government, particularly the local authorities, desires to increase spending when the economy is expanding. Developing nations frequently lack automatic stabilization instruments during economic recession. For instance, unemployment insurance payouts are infrequent, and social transfers represent a negligible portion of the budget. In developing nations, the majority of expenditures are comprised of government consumption and wages. Additionally, indirect taxes (trade and consumption taxes) sometimes replace direct taxes in emerging countries (income taxes). In order for the government to achieve its long-term macroeconomic management objectives, it must employ fiscal policy effectively and at the appropriate moment during a recession or rapid economic expansion (Talvi and Vegh, 2005). Through the use of fiscal policy, the government intervenes to restore economic equilibrium. An unfavorable impact on the economy can have both immediate and long-term repercussions if the wrong decision is made. Consequently, it is crucial to determine the most effective fiscal policy instruments required to support economic growth. In order to fund global government budgets and promote economic growth, sustainable funding policies are needed. Frequently, when tax collections fall short of projected government spending, there is no other option than to increase taxes or borrow money either domestically or internationally (Owusu-Nantwi and Erickson, 2016). When governments employ borrowing as an alternative to taxation, this results in public debt (Ogunmuyiwa, 2011). Consequently, public debt consists of the government's short- and long-term loans used to support public expenditures due to insufficient public revenue. As a result of the worldwide economic crisis following World War II, many economies (including wealthy and 174 emerging nations) were forced to borrow locally or internationally to pay their budget deficit. 2
These efforts have led to the accumulation of public debt in many nations, causing economic recession and financial crises in the early 2000s in numerous developed and developing nations (Donayre and Taivan, 2017). The government uses the public debt as a key tool to finance national development. The use of debt to finance expenditures that will ultimately increase productivity and stimulate the economy. However, empirical research on public debt, such as those conducted by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and Panizza and Presbitero (2014), indicate that public debt will have a negative effect on economic growth once it exceeds a particular threshold. According to Mankiw (2013), the government expenditure deficit surpasses the self-accumulation that can be paid by domestic and international businesses. Public debt encompasses both international and domestic obligations. Rahman (2012) defines public debt as a circumstance in which the quantity of valuable documents possessed by the government is insufficient to compensate the deficiency in previous expenditures. According to macroeconomic theory, a government debt utilized to pay spending in productive areas such as health, education, and nutrition will have a beneficial impact on economic growth (Freeman, & Webber 2009). If the rate of return on government debt is higher than the rate at which the government receives paid for its services, then the country will gain from the debt incurred by the government, and vice versa. Presently, rising national debt is a global phenomenon. Total public debt has long been cited as a major subject of concern by both financial and monetary policymakers. Public debt, particularly debt spending programs, plays a vital role in achieving rapid economic growth. According to Elmendorf and Mankiw (1999), debt can increase aggregate demand and output in the short term, but lower capital and output in the long term. Governments rely heavily on public debt to finance a nation's economic development. Debt is utilized to fund expenditures that will ultimately increase productivity and stimulate economic growth. Nonetheless, empirical research on public debt, such as those conducted by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and Panizza and Presbitero (2014), indicate that public debt will have a negative effect on economic growth once it beyond a certain threshold number. According to Mankiw 3
(2013), the government expenditure deficit surpasses the self-accumulation that can be paid by domestic and international businesses. Public debt consists of both local and international debt. Rahman (2012) defines public debt as a circumstance in which the quantity of valuable documents possessed by the government is insufficient to compensate the deficiency in previous expenditures. According to macroeconomic theory, a government debt utilized to pay spending in productive areas such as health, education, and nutrition will have a beneficial impact on economic growth (Freeman, & Webber 2009). It is extremely difficult for a nation to create a budget surplus; hence, public debt is unavoidable (Adom, 2016). However, unsustainable levels of public debt might inhibit economic growth (Adom, 2016). Unsustainable public debt hinders economic growth by reducing a country's competitiveness and increasing its financial markets' sensitivity to international shocks (Cochrane, 2011a; Castro et al., 2015). This also means that, while borrowing to support public spending is not necessarily a bad thing, it can have a negative influence on economic growth if it is not adequately controlled. The 1970s and 1980s worldwide debt crises were triggered by weak debt management practices in low- and middle-income countries (Marquez, 2000). Due to a rise in short-term loans to finance long-term projects without the ability to meet debt commitments on time, debt collection and repayment have become a central concern for emerging and less developed countries (Marquez, 2000). There are still conflicting conclusions regarding how public debt affects economic growth, regardless of whether it rises or falls. Others academics find a positive, some a negative, while others find no correlation between public debt and economic growth under different economic conditions. According to economists, public debt is not a problem; rather, the issue is the debt's mismanagement. Empirical evidence suggests that if adequate laws are in place and can be used to promote conditional lending, where aid is attached to policy reform, then aid will be successful . On both the short- and long-term, the public debt has a significant impact on the economy (Kumar and Woo, 2010). The mismatch between theory and practice on the relationship between public debt and economic growth 4
has also contributed to the disparities in policy approaches among the examined nations. Vietnam's national debt is thought to be under control, although it may still pose a barrier to its ambitions for economic development. High debt can significantly effect economic growth and development. Thus, public debt has both beneficial and negative consequences on the economies of nations, causing several obstacles and difficulties. High levels of debt might hinder economic growth and development. This topic has always attracted a great deal of attention due to the difficulties involved in analyzing the challenges of economic growth and governmental debt. The impact of government interventions on economic growth through debt, taxation, and spending continues to be an important subject of economic policy in the global economy. Although the origins and effects of public debt on the economies of developing nations are still debatable, it is clear that public debt has a negative impact on economic growth. Recent financial crises in both developed and developing nations, as well as vast disparities in economic growth rates among world economies, have led to a new link between public debt and economic growth.. The fact that Asian countries are the greatest borrowers among emerging economies means that the issue of rising public debt is a particularly critical issue in these countries. This is because of the fact that Asian countries are located in the region with the most rapidly developing economy. Asian economies also had two major crises during the time analyzed, the Asian financial crisis of 1998 and the global financial crisis of 2008 which boosted the public debt- to-GDP ratio in these countries. Unlike other studies in the world, the relationship between public debt and economic growth is mainly carried out in developed countries or countries with a clearly recognized market economy. Domestic studies mainly find thresholds or just stop analyzing the situation between public debt and economic growth. However, the thesis selected Vietnam as the research sample, with the economic operating mechanism under the management of the state having many differences compared to other countries. On the other hand, from theory and empirical studies, it is shown that overusing and maintaining a high public debt will have negative effects on the 5
economic growth of countries. Therefore, the thesis does not search for thresholds but estimates the level of asymmetric impacts, including the specific positive and negative impacts of public debt on economic growth. This topic's primary purpose is to evaluate the asymmetric influence of public debt on economic growth in Vietnam based on the preceding practice and previous empirical research. The study examines whether debt is a barrier to economic growth in Vietnam and how government loans affect the short- and long-term sustainability of the economy. The findings of this study will provide empirical evidence regarding the impact of public debt on the sustainable growth of the Vietnamese economy. 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between fiscal policies and economic cycles, serving as the basis to quantify the asymmetric impact of Vietnam's governmental debt on economic growth.. The conclusions of the asymmetric impact of public debt on economic growth serve as the foundation for recommending fiscal policies for Vietnam. To accomplish the objective, the research must address the following specific aims: (1) Assessing the impact of fiscal policy determinants on economic growth in Vietnam (2) Determine the impact of fiscal policy on Vietnam's economic expansion. (3) Examining the asymmetric impact of public debt on economic growth in Vietnam. (4) Analysing the effects and repercussions of the policy of public debt on the expansion of the Vietnamese economy. To achieve the goals of this thesis, it is necessary to respond to the following questions: (1) Does Vietnam's fiscal policy have a causal relationship with economic growth? (2) What is the extent of fiscal policy's influence on economic expansion? 6
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