MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY AND EDUCATION FACULTY FOR HIGH QUALITY TRAINING LOGISTICS & SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT IMPROVING TRADE PROMOTION FORECAST ACCURACY AT CIRCLE K VIETNAM SUPERVISOR: MBA. HO TH HONG XUYEN STUDENT: NGUYEN NHU QUYNH SKL 0 0 8 7 0 8 Ho Chi Minh City, April, 2021
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HCMC UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY AND EDUCATION FACULTY OF ECONOMICS BACHELOR THESIS TITLE: IMPROVING TRADE PROMOTION FORECAST ACCURACY AT CIRCLE K VIETNAM Student: Nguyễn Như Quỳnh Student ID: 18132055 Class: 181320B - K2018 Major: Logistics & Supply chain management Lecturer: Dr. Hồ Thị Hồng Xuyên Ho Chi Minh City, April 2022
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I am grateful to have an opportunity to work at Circle K Vietnam where I learned and accumulated some lessons for myself, knowledge and invaluable experience from my mentor, Mr Duong Hoang Phuc, Planning & Replenishment Supervisor. With his dedicated guidance, support and empathy, I have currently touched the piece of experience in supply planning in Retail. I also would like to express my great gratitude to Ms. Ho Thi Hong Xuyen, my lecturer in the final project before closing my university time and other lecturers who were with me during academic journey. Although I tried my best with hope to make a valuable research, there are still some limitations in terms of knowledge, ability to apply theory to practice and practical experience, so mistakes cannot be avoided. I hope to receive feedback from lecturers to make my report better, which can become helpful reference for the next student generation. Thank you sincerely! Ho Chi Minh City, March 2022 Student Nguyễn Như Quỳnh iii
GLOSSARY TERM STAND FOR CIC Category-in-charge CRM Customer relationship management Ctn Carton DC Distribution center FA Forecast accuracy KPI Key performance indicator MAPE Mean absolute percentage error Pcs Pieces PO Purchase order ROP Reorder point SKU Stock keeping unit SO Store order SOH Stock on hand SOQ Suggested order quantity WIP Work in progress iv
LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1. Tradeoffs in retail industry……………………………………………….19 Table 2.2. Class in ABC analysis management……………………………………...22 Table 2.3. Category features as combining ABC & XYZ analysis…………………24 Table 2.4. Data set for example……………………………………………………..28 Table 2.5. Summary output…………………………………………………………..28 Table 2.6. Anova……………………………………………………………………..29 Table 2.7. Residual output……………………………………………………………31 Table 3.1. Item list for instance………………………………………………………36 Table 3.2. Strongbow Promotion (Cider Dark & Cider Gold)……………………….38 Table 3.3. SKU Classification for Wine & Liquor……………………………………45 Table 3.4. Item list of CUNG DINH noodles…………………………………………46 Table 3.5. Replenishment analysis for CUNG DINH noodles………………………..46 Table 4.1. Case statistics……………………………………………………………...49 Table 4.2. Actual Demand and Forecast in ABC class with multiple categories…….50 Table 4.3. MAPE data set for each class……………………………………………...51 Table 4.4. Difference between customer demand and SO for each classification……53 Table 4.5. List of variables’ effects sizes……………………………………………..55 Table 4.6. Data set for multiple linear regression…………………………………….56 Table 4.7. Summary output…………………………………………………………...57 v
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